Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | BUT -115 SJU -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +23 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | BUT -1.1 (-24.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -0.2 (-23.2) | 151.5 (-10.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -2.4 (-25.4) | 149.1 (-8.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -1.9 (-24.9) | 149.0 (-8.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -2.2 (-25.2) | 150.7 (-9.7) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | SJU 92 – 70 BUT |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SJU 84 – 70 BUT |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SJU 78 – 57 BUT |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SJU 76 – 70 BUT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 62 BUT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#52) | 12.1 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#63) | 1.45 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#67) | 1.97 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#116) | 0.539 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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