Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | SDAK -650 STMN +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +21 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -7.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -6.5 (+14.5) | 142.0 (-1.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -7.2 (+13.8) | 147.8 (-6.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -6.7 (+14.3) | 150.3 (-9.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -7.0 (+14.0) | 148.9 (-7.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | STMN 90 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | STMN 99 – 86 SDAK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 12, 2025 | STMN 119 – 104 SDAK |
| Feb 18, 2024 | STMN 83 – 80 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#234) | -8.1 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#207) | -1.93 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#216) | -2.03 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#212) | 0.415 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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