Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -2.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -2.4 (+13.6) | 137.2 (+8.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -2.1 (+13.9) | 138.2 (+7.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -2.1 (+13.9) | 137.7 (+8.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -2.0 (+14.0) | 137.6 (+8.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TNST 80 – 53 SIUE |
| Jan 23, 2026 | SIUE 74 – 66 TNST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SIUE 71 – 69 TNST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SIUE 84 – 72 TNST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SIUE 87 – 80 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#302) | -7.5 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#316) | -1.91 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#319) | -2.46 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#339) | 0.423 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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