Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +3 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -11.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -9.4 (-12.4) | 126.9 (+16.1) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -10.5 (-13.5) | 132.0 (+11.0) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -10.6 (-13.6) | 131.6 (+11.4) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -11.3 (-14.3) | 129.6 (+13.4) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 80 UTC |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCG 77 – 72 UTC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTC 75 – 63 UNCG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 75 UTC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTC 89 – 61 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 12-4 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#66) | -0.7 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#42) | 0.34 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#61) | 0.22 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#23) | 0.515 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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