Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EWU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EWU +2 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -1.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EWU -0.6 (+1.4) | 144.5 (+29.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -0.8 (+2.8) | 145.7 (+28.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -0.8 (+2.8) | 147.2 (+26.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -1.1 (+3.1) | 147.9 (+26.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | EWU 72 – 71 MTST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | MTST 68 – 64 EWU |
| Jan 21, 2025 | MTST 74 – 64 EWU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | EWU 68 – 63 MTST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | EWU 108 – 104 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EWU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 16-4 |
| Home | 9-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-11 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#224) | 1.0 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#213) | 0.87 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#213) | 1.05 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#202) | 0.544 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EWU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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