Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -238 EWU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EWU +1 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -8.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -7.7 (-8.7) | 147.5 (-4.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -7.5 (-8.5) | 144.7 (-1.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -6.9 (-7.9) | 145.8 (-2.8) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -7.9 (-8.9) | 147.1 (-4.1) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | MTST 68 – 64 EWU |
| Jan 21, 2025 | MTST 74 – 64 EWU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | EWU 68 – 63 MTST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | EWU 108 – 104 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MTST 70 – 60 EWU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#140) | -3.5 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#161) | -1.30 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#147) | -1.36 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#184) | 0.423 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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