Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -8.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.7 (+28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -7.9 (+2.1) | 129.1 (+18.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -6.2 (+3.8) | 130.1 (+17.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -6.5 (+3.5) | 129.5 (+18.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -6.3 (+3.7) | 130.1 (+17.9) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 2-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#185) | -6.5 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#164) | -1.82 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#189) | -2.07 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#153) | 0.409 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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