Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +17 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -4.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -5.7 (+11.3) | 131.1 (+19.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -4.7 (+12.3) | 134.8 (+16.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -4.5 (+12.5) | 135.2 (+15.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -4.8 (+12.2) | 132.9 (+18.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ARST 83 – 82 TXST |
| Dec 18, 2025 | ARST 89 – 70 TXST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | ARST 85 – 74 TXST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ARST 80 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ARST 79 – 72 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-8 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 8-7 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#151) | -1.3 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#106) | 0.39 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#115) | 0.58 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#101) | 0.522 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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