Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -4.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -5.9 (-14.9) | 133.6 (-8.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.5 (-13.5) | 135.6 (-10.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.9 (-13.9) | 136.0 (-11.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -4.5 (-13.5) | 134.9 (-9.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | UCSB 83 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CSUF 95 – 84 UCSB |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSB 86 – 56 CSUF |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCSB 83 – 75 CSUF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | CSUF 79 – 70 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-11 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#136) | 0.2 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#243) | 0.25 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#219) | 0.13 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#280) | 0.514 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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