Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFBK +9 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -7.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -5.5 (-14.5) | 129.0 (-10.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -5.3 (-14.3) | 130.2 (-11.2) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -5.2 (-14.2) | 131.4 (-12.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -5.5 (-14.5) | 130.4 (-11.4) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2022 | MSM 78 – 48 SFBK |
| Jan 8, 2022 | MSM 69 – 61 SFBK |
| Jan 8, 2021 | SFBK 67 – 55 MSM |
| Jan 7, 2021 | SFBK 70 – 55 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 3-9 |
| Away | 6-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#257) | -9.3 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#265) | -2.50 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#266) | -2.95 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#203) | 0.397 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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