Betting Lines
| Spread | SFBK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFBK +15 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -6.1 (+21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -2.6 (+17.6) | 132.6 (-7.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -4.0 (+19.0) | 138.1 (-13.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -3.1 (+18.1) | 135.7 (-10.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -2.8 (+17.8) | 131.9 (-6.9) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2022 | MSM 78 – 48 SFBK |
| Feb 18, 2022 | SFBK 64 – 55 MSM |
| Jan 8, 2022 | MSM 69 – 61 SFBK |
| Jan 8, 2021 | SFBK 67 – 55 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFBK | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-10 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#275) | 2.5 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#186) | 1.13 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#212) | 1.72 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#199) | 0.587 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFBK | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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