Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +18 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -16.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -15.2 (+2.8) | 131.5 (-9.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -14.3 (+3.7) | 136.8 (-14.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -13.7 (+4.3) | 136.2 (-14.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -13.7 (+4.3) | 134.6 (-12.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | HOU 79 – 55 UCF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HOU 69 – 68 UCF |
| Mar 7, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 UCF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HOU 57 – 42 UCF |
| Jan 26, 2023 | HOU 82 – 71 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 9-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.8 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#4) | 5.9 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#24) | 1.31 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#15) | 1.69 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#13) | 0.548 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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