Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +35 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -20.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -17.1 (+17.9) | 134.4 (+12.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -16.4 (+18.6) | 135.1 (+11.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -17.5 (+17.5) | 134.8 (+12.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -17.8 (+17.2) | 133.8 (+13.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | APSU 53 – 49 MUR |
| Dec 17, 2022 | MUR 68 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 3, 2022 | MUR 65 – 53 APSU |
| Dec 22, 2020 | APSU 74 – 70 MUR |
| Dec 9, 2020 | MUR 87 – 57 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-3 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 6-5 |
| Away | 11-1 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#35) | -6.0 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#13) | -1.17 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#16) | -1.51 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#22) | 0.453 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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