Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | APSU +600 MUR -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +12 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -13.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -12.0 (-0.0) | 134.9 (-16.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -11.9 (-0.1) | 136.9 (-18.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -11.3 (-0.7) | 137.6 (-19.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -12.3 (+0.3) | 137.4 (-19.4) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | APSU 53 – 49 MUR |
| Dec 17, 2022 | MUR 68 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 18, 2022 | MUR 91 – 56 APSU |
| Dec 22, 2020 | APSU 74 – 70 MUR |
| Dec 9, 2020 | MUR 87 – 57 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | 31-3 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 18-0 |
| Home | 6-5 | 15-0 |
| Away | 6-11 | 11-1 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 63.4 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#264) | 11.7 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#292) | 2.83 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#284) | 3.36 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#291) | 0.610 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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