Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +140 MUR -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +4 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -0.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-39.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -2.2 (+6.2) | 133.4 (-31.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -0.4 (+3.6) | 136.7 (-34.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -1.1 (+2.9) | 137.2 (-35.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -0.3 (+3.7) | 136.2 (-34.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2022 | MUR 68 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 18, 2022 | MUR 91 – 56 APSU |
| Feb 3, 2022 | MUR 65 – 53 APSU |
| Dec 22, 2020 | APSU 74 – 70 MUR |
| Dec 9, 2020 | MUR 87 – 57 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#298) | -2.0 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#303) | -0.52 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#298) | -0.51 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#311) | 0.457 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.