Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +150 MUR -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -4.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -2.8 (+6.8) | 137.4 (+6.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -1.4 (+5.4) | 143.1 (+0.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -1.9 (+5.9) | 143.1 (+0.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -2.7 (+6.7) | 143.7 (+0.3) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | APSU 53 – 49 MUR |
| Dec 17, 2022 | MUR 68 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 18, 2022 | MUR 91 – 56 APSU |
| Feb 3, 2022 | MUR 65 – 53 APSU |
| Dec 9, 2020 | MUR 87 – 57 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#265) | 1.9 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#205) | -0.39 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#212) | -0.38 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#262) | 0.484 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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