Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
Ohio Valley Conference · Winfield Dunn Center · December 22, 2020
Betting Lines
Spread MUR -3.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money APSU +150 / MUR -180
Model Predictions
Spread Total APSU win
Actual APSU +4 144 Won
Massey MUR -4.0 (+8.0) — —
Massey Totals — 145.2 (-1.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 66% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 54% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MUR -2.8 (+6.8) 137.4 (+6.6) 44% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML MUR -1.4 (+5.4) 143.1 (+0.9) 43% ✗
Baseline ML MUR -1.9 (+5.9) 143.1 (+0.9) 45% ✗
Baseline Plus ML MUR -2.7 (+6.7) 143.7 (+0.3) 50% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 10, 2023 APSU 53 – 49 MUR
Dec 17, 2022 MUR 68 – 60 APSU
Feb 18, 2022 MUR 91 – 56 APSU
Feb 3, 2022 MUR 65 – 53 APSU
Dec 9, 2020 MUR 87 – 57 APSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings APSU MUR
Overall 14-13 13-13
Conference 10-10 10-10
Home 8-5 9-4
Away 4-6 4-8
Neutral 2-2 0-1
Last 5 2-3 2-2
Streak L4 L3
Avg Pts For 72.9 71.8
Avg Pts Against 71.4 66.5
Massey -6.6 (#265) 1.9 (#135)
Bradley-Terry -0.53 (#205) -0.39 (#193)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.13 (#212) -0.38 (#173)
RPI 0.418 (#262) 0.484 (#174)
Shooting & Four Factors APSU MUR
FG% 41.5% 47.9%
3PT% 28.0% 35.0%
REB / G 33.0 37.8
OREB / G 13.0 10.2
AST / TO 0.54 0.92
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.0% 53.8%
TOV% 24.4% 22.8%
ORB% 36.1% 32.0%
FT Rate 24.9% 16.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.4% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 22.5% 21.3%
DRB% 67.6% 75.3%
Opp FT Rate 20.2% 21.9%

Game Analysis

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