Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | MUR -160 APSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +30 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -0.9 (+29.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -0.0 (+30.0) | 142.3 (+1.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -0.0 (+30.0) | 143.7 (+0.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -0.1 (+30.1) | 144.5 (-0.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -3.9 (+26.1) | 144.8 (-0.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | APSU 53 – 49 MUR |
| Dec 17, 2022 | MUR 68 – 60 APSU |
| Feb 18, 2022 | MUR 91 – 56 APSU |
| Feb 3, 2022 | MUR 65 – 53 APSU |
| Dec 22, 2020 | APSU 74 – 70 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#216) | 1.7 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#173) | 1.74 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#139) | 2.60 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.374 (#242) | 0.627 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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