Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -400 APSU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -11.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -11.8 (-3.8) | 134.3 (-6.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -8.6 (-0.6) | 136.4 (-8.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -8.3 (-0.3) | 135.6 (-7.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -8.2 (-0.2) | 134.6 (-6.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | APSU 53 – 49 MUR |
| Feb 18, 2022 | MUR 91 – 56 APSU |
| Feb 3, 2022 | MUR 65 – 53 APSU |
| Dec 22, 2020 | APSU 74 – 70 MUR |
| Dec 9, 2020 | MUR 87 – 57 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#174) | -5.9 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#121) | -1.29 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#115) | -1.37 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#138) | 0.480 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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