Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -4.0 Push |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +4 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -5.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -4.2 (-0.2) | 154.8 (+37.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -3.2 (+0.8) | 153.9 (+38.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -3.8 (+0.2) | 155.7 (+36.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -3.0 (+1.0) | 155.3 (+36.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SEMO 89 – 73 TNTC |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNTC 85 – 74 SEMO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SEMO 83 – 69 TNTC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SEMO 77 – 70 TNTC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SEMO 88 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 8-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#244) | -6.7 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#321) | -1.44 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#312) | -1.80 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#312) | 0.449 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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