Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +18 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | LIU -1.8 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -1.7 (-16.3) | 148.1 (-4.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -1.5 (-16.5) | 147.5 (-3.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -1.4 (-16.6) | 150.9 (-6.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -0.8 (-17.2) | 150.6 (-6.6) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | LIU 91 – 89 SFPA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | LIU 67 – 63 SFPA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SFPA 71 – 68 LIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SFPA 74 – 64 LIU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LIU 64 – 51 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-8 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-13 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#319) | -5.1 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#335) | -1.23 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#325) | -1.28 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#322) | 0.469 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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