Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -2.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -4.0 (+3.0) | 138.8 (+16.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -1.4 (+0.4) | 141.8 (+13.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -1.8 (+0.8) | 142.2 (+12.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -1.4 (+0.4) | 141.1 (+13.9) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UL 85 – 79 ULM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UL 76 – 62 ULM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UL 73 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UL 65 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UL 71 – 68 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#281) | -1.6 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#206) | -0.58 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#218) | -0.42 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#187) | 0.465 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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