That's where you'll find me, along with the lovers muggers and thieves - but they're cool people. "Dirty Water" - The Standells
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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82–38 on winners spread MAE 8.4 120 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Maryland -7.5 146.5 23% 65–81 ✗
Evansville @ Illinois State +8.0 146.2 80% 56–94 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis +4.1 138.9 68% 67–68 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's +1.4 138.2 58% 59–98 ✓
Bryant @ Merrimack -1.6 136.0 45% 79–63 ✓
Wagner @ Long Island University -5.4 145.5 26% 92–85 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fairleigh Dickinson +0.6 138.3 50% 80–78 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State +5.5 146.7 74% 61–64 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.0 141.3 70% 62–86 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne -3.2 139.9 34% 64–56 ✓
Rider @ Canisius +3.5 139.0 65% 69–70 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Niagara +3.4 130.0 63% 74–68 ✗
Siena @ Manhattan +3.5 142.7 66% 68–75 ✓
Kent State @ Buffalo +5.1 144.0 72% 51–64 ✓
Michigan State @ Wisconsin +4.3 140.9 70% 86–74 ✗
Fresno State @ Nevada -3.1 137.1 37% 73–77 ✗
Syracuse @ Duke +11.9 158.8 87% 59–79 ✓
Villanova @ Georgetown -14.4 140.8 13% 85–74 ✓
West Virginia @ Texas Tech +9.0 129.9 80% 65–78 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's -2.3 158.0 40% 66–60 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Boston College -6.0 131.7 26% 63–68 ✗
UMBC @ Maine -7.3 134.6 23% 88–46 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis -12.0 127.1 14% 60–41 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern -4.1 145.0 30% 72–50 ✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota +5.2 131.5 67% 65–68 ✓
George Washington @ Rhode Island +13.9 135.2 87% 63–61 ✗
Kentucky @ Auburn +5.1 153.0 73% 71–80 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston University +8.1 138.4 82% 74–80 ✓
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire +3.5 130.3 65% 61–67 ✓
Oakland @ Green Bay -11.5 138.9 15% 68–61 ✓
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +3.7 141.5 70% 75–73 ✗
Chattanooga @ VMI -3.8 148.2 31% 78–74 ✓
Elon @ Delaware +9.1 146.0 83% 77–80 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Florida +6.3 138.6 72% 42–61 ✓
Army @ Navy +8.3 134.6 81% 74–73 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Texas +5.9 127.0 74% 51–56 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross +0.1 142.0 50% 68–65 ✗
Tulane @ UCF +6.9 143.9 76% 66–68 ✓
American University @ Loyola Maryland +9.6 134.2 86% 73–78 ✓
Southern Miss @ Middle Tennessee +15.1 137.3 89% 60–74 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford +0.5 137.2 50% 78–74 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +3.7 143.0 69% 62–64 ✓
Florida State @ Miami +3.6 148.2 69% 61–60 ✗
Princeton @ Dartmouth -3.4 141.6 33% 84–80 ✓
Harvard @ Cornell +1.6 154.0 59% 61–76 ✓
Brown @ Columbia -8.2 142.1 19% 93–74 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State -1.3 141.1 43% 72–68 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham -6.0 139.6 25% 69–66 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Towson +11.7 138.8 86% 81–77 ✗
William & Mary @ Drexel +14.5 144.8 89% 83–75 ✗
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan -4.6 154.9 31% 82–75 ✓
Colorado State @ Air Force -9.0 129.2 18% 73–53 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Lipscomb -3.0 151.7 37% 73–77 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ VCU +8.8 131.6 81% 54–70 ✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma -3.9 136.9 31% 65–51 ✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M -3.5 136.0 37% 68–70 ✗
Charlotte @ Rice +4.6 150.0 70% 67–64 ✗
New Mexico State @ Stephen F. Austin +1.2 139.4 56% 72–58 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Sam Houston -2.7 132.3 38% 56–58 ✗
Longwood @ Presbyterian -3.3 131.4 37% 71–70 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee -0.5 141.7 48% 71–58 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +0.7 140.1 58% 60–67 ✓
UT Arlington @ Little Rock -2.0 139.9 42% 96–98 ✗
South Alabama @ UL Monroe -4.3 150.1 34% 68–56 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern +0.8 133.0 51% 70–62 ✗
South Dakota State @ Western Illinois -3.2 164.6 36% 93–75 ✓
San José State @ UNLV +10.8 137.3 87% 62–70 ✓
Missouri State @ Loyola Chicago +9.7 145.0 82% 79–69 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Grambling +11.3 150.0 87% 64–68 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +8.8 145.4 83% 82–85 ✓
Georgia @ South Carolina +7.6 143.6 79% 66–83 ✓
Kansas @ Kansas State -5.3 137.8 27% 78–75 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State +5.3 127.4 71% 59–44 ✗
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman -2.9 123.0 38% 50–55 ✗
Howard @ Morgan State -6.6 150.5 25% 91–82 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +7.5 149.2 79% 101–93 ✗
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State -0.8 136.2 44% 67–73 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State +10.5 138.9 85% 74–77 ✓
Austin Peay @ Tennessee State +0.1 142.3 50% 61–65 ✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +8.5 144.4 80% 69–60 ✗
UAB @ Louisiana Tech +1.2 145.4 56% 83–76 ✗
Marshall @ Florida Atlantic +8.9 153.3 81% 60–71 ✓
Montana @ Northern Arizona -4.6 140.4 30% 58–48 ✓
Idaho State @ Southern Utah +14.9 140.0 90% 74–86 ✓
Lamar @ Utah Valley +15.3 138.2 90% 41–58 ✓
California Baptist @ Abilene Christian +4.8 144.3 72% 68–77 ✓
High Point @ Hampton -0.1 130.2 49% 64–68 ✗
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate +11.7 146.2 87% 57–70 ✓
Notre Dame @ Louisville +0.8 137.5 53% 82–70 ✗
Virginia @ NC State +0.8 132.4 52% 63–77 ✓
Yale @ Pennsylvania -0.0 146.9 51% 68–76 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville State +9.1 148.5 82% 71–79 ✓
Omaha @ Denver +8.8 150.5 83% 63–94 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +7.0 150.6 79% 75–73 ✗
Charleston @ James Madison +1.8 157.7 62% 94–95 ✓
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State +9.4 138.5 83% 60–78 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -7.1 142.0 24% 87–58 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State -12.1 132.9 15% 73–49 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +12.1 139.5 88% 77–71 ✗
Stetson @ North Alabama +4.4 133.3 66% 67–65 ✗
Richmond @ La Salle -4.5 145.0 30% 64–56 ✓
Penn State @ Iowa +9.7 142.1 82% 51–68 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho -0.5 145.0 44% 72–73 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington +1.3 157.2 59% 87–83 ✗
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans +9.7 153.5 84% 77–85 ✓
McNeese @ Incarnate Word -4.4 142.2 30% 82–72 ✓
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T +1.7 131.4 55% 73–72 ✗
Samford @ UNC Greensboro +4.2 136.4 69% 58–61 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +7.8 147.6 80% 64–72 ✓
DePaul @ Creighton +6.1 147.0 74% 47–60 ✓
East Carolina @ Houston +17.2 145.7 91% 36–79 ✓
LSU @ Tennessee +1.0 133.7 53% 50–64 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +8.1 142.3 81% 77–84 ✓
Old Dominion @ North Texas +12.7 127.0 86% 56–69 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Clemson +9.7 136.2 82% 48–75 ✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa +3.5 146.4 67% 82–74 ✗
Missouri @ Alabama +14.9 151.6 89% 76–86 ✓
USC @ Utah -4.4 139.8 31% 79–67 ✓
Alabama State @ Prairie View A&M +0.4 153.3 53% 67–70 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +11.9 142.4 88% 51–99 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.