You have to let that raga drop. "Rock the Casbah" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–13 on winners spread MAE 8.7 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern +11.4 132.1 86% 44–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -1.3 140.6 44% 83–86 ✗
Stony Brook @ UAlbany -0.5 135.4 48% 86–75 ✓
Hartford @ Vermont +17.0 146.4 90% 72–82 ✓
Binghamton @ NJIT +1.2 136.9 56% 68–57 ✗
North Florida @ Eastern Kentucky +7.9 144.3 76% 58–67 ✓
Jacksonville @ Bellarmine +3.6 125.7 62% 73–76 ✓
Dayton @ George Mason +0.3 131.9 49% 49–50 ✓
Furman @ Wofford +2.5 143.3 62% 75–50 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Akron +7.4 146.5 80% 44–46 ✓
San Francisco @ Pepperdine -12.3 149.3 14% 71–45 ✓
New Mexico @ Wyoming +13.2 151.7 89% 91–93 ✓
UT Martin @ Murray State +19.9 143.1 91% 66–74 ✓
Seattle U @ Tarleton State +0.0 141.0 48% 76–68 ✗
North Carolina @ Wake Forest +3.5 150.0 70% 76–98 ✓
Wright State @ UIC +0.1 149.8 53% 97–81 ✗
Troy @ Louisiana +1.3 140.7 56% 59–69 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +5.0 131.5 70% 62–70 ✓
North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts +10.6 152.9 84% 72–71 ✗
North Dakota @ Kansas City +9.4 139.9 85% 74–79 ✓
South Dakota @ St. Thomas +3.2 149.9 66% 90–79 ✗
San Diego @ Pacific -4.4 133.2 30% 73–65 ✓
Texas A&M @ Arkansas +5.5 143.7 72% 73–76 ✓
UCLA @ Colorado -3.5 141.5 36% 71–65 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Fullerton +7.7 139.7 80% 80–83 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Tech +1.3 154.8 57% 74–85 ✓
Portland @ BYU +15.0 144.0 89% 65–78 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +3.4 122.1 66% 42–37 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -7.0 134.0 24% 69–56 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Northridge -6.9 123.4 23% 77–67 ✓
Montana State @ Portland State -6.8 138.1 25% 73–60 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount -5.9 131.9 25% 83–51 ✓
Arizona State @ Stanford +6.1 136.5 76% 76–79 ✓
Butler @ Providence +11.0 134.5 87% 62–69 ✓
Northwestern @ Purdue +12.6 157.3 87% 60–80 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Bryant +9.0 147.5 83% 68–85 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +8.4 132.1 80% 70–67 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Canisius -2.3 135.4 40% 60–63 ✗
Xavier @ Marquette +0.4 146.4 57% 64–75 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Mount St. Mary's +9.1 135.0 83% 50–65 ✓
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +2.6 142.0 62% 71–82 ✓
Illinois State @ Evansville -7.5 144.5 24% 53–56 ✗
Fairfield @ Marist +5.2 135.3 72% 69–66 ✗
Manhattan @ Monmouth +9.3 146.3 85% 62–78 ✓
Iona @ Quinnipiac -8.1 151.2 21% 76–61 ✓
Massachusetts @ Saint Louis +10.5 155.6 85% 59–90 ✓
Arizona @ California -12.9 142.0 15% 96–71 ✓
Memphis @ Tulsa -4.0 143.5 34% 83–81 ✓
Wagner @ Merrimack -11.4 133.3 15% 71–57 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State +10.8 148.5 86% 68–75 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana +5.8 137.4 75% 80–62 ✗
UTEP @ UTSA -7.1 134.6 21% 59–54 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Saint Francis +1.7 144.3 59% 74–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.