Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
| Money | BRAD -180 SIU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -6.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -4.8 (+3.2) | 130.5 (+1.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -5.0 (+3.0) | 131.5 (+0.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -5.2 (+2.8) | 133.3 (-1.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -5.1 (+2.9) | 131.0 (+1.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BRAD 70 – 60 SIU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | BRAD 73 – 69 SIU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BRAD 78 – 64 SIU |
| Dec 4, 2024 | BRAD 83 – 60 SIU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 67 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 61.6 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#105) | 1.8 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#211) | -0.31 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#194) | -0.17 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#202) | 0.470 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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