Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -13.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -10.7 (-3.7) | 130.2 (+0.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -11.0 (-4.0) | 134.5 (-3.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -11.5 (-4.5) | 134.7 (-3.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -9.9 (-2.9) | 131.1 (-0.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BTLR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BTLR |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BTLR 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BTLR 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BTLR 82 – 81 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#56) | -0.8 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#6) | 1.19 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#16) | 1.62 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#5) | 0.524 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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