Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -1.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -0.7 (+10.3) | 145.3 (-6.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -0.4 (+10.6) | 146.4 (-7.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -0.9 (+10.1) | 145.5 (-6.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -1.4 (+9.6) | 146.9 (-7.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 8-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#46) | 14.5 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#29) | 3.06 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#39) | 3.78 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#23) | 0.636 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.