Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +3 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -6.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-38.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -5.6 (+8.6) | 140.7 (-31.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -7.5 (+10.5) | 144.5 (-35.5) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -7.3 (+10.3) | 144.8 (-35.8) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -6.9 (+9.9) | 145.1 (-36.1) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | EVAN 88 – 80 ILST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | ILST 73 – 47 EVAN |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILST 62 – 53 EVAN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | EVAN 69 – 51 ILST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | EVAN 59 – 53 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 5-13 |
| Home | 4-9 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#319) | 0.4 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#333) | -0.40 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#323) | -0.45 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#319) | 0.469 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 28.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 18.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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