Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -6.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -6.5 (-3.5) | 144.6 (+4.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.5 (-2.5) | 143.7 (+5.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.3 (-2.3) | 143.3 (+5.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.4 (-2.4) | 145.1 (+3.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ARK 99 – 84 TA&M |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TA&M 69 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 21, 2024 | ARK 78 – 71 TA&M |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ARK 78 – 77 TA&M |
| Mar 11, 2023 | TA&M 67 – 61 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 27-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 16-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#35) | 7.9 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#61) | 2.26 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#52) | 2.77 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#64) | 0.566 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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