Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +32 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -7.2 (-24.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.7 (-27.3) | 129.2 (+4.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -5.9 (-26.1) | 131.9 (+2.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -5.9 (-26.1) | 132.9 (+1.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -6.1 (-25.9) | 132.1 (+1.9) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | SMC 78 – 73 LMU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SMC 58 – 55 LMU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | SMC 81 – 56 LMU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SMC 70 – 65 LMU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SMC 68 – 64 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 3-12 | 12-3 |
| Home | 6-7 | 16-0 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 61.3 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#172) | 10.2 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#126) | 2.43 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#123) | 2.96 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#113) | 0.622 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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