Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -2.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -0.9 (+10.1) | 141.2 (+11.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -2.6 (+8.4) | 142.0 (+11.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -1.9 (+9.1) | 142.0 (+11.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -1.2 (+9.8) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | YSU 90 – 61 PFW |
| Jan 8, 2026 | PFW 71 – 69 YSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | YSU 72 – 67 PFW |
| Feb 12, 2025 | YSU 93 – 71 PFW |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PFW 90 – 81 YSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 12-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#259) | -3.6 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#248) | -1.12 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#268) | -1.26 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#258) | 0.439 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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