Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +13 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -6.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -5.7 (-7.3) | 137.1 (-4.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -6.8 (-6.2) | 138.1 (-5.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -6.9 (-6.1) | 139.4 (-6.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -7.4 (-5.6) | 141.3 (-8.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTST 84 – 69 PRST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PRST 63 – 54 MTST |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PRST 69 – 52 MTST |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MTST 74 – 73 PRST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | MTST 72 – 67 PRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 16-4 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#311) | 1.0 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#337) | 0.45 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#324) | 0.52 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#341) | 0.522 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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