Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
| Money | WAKE -120 UNC +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +22 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -3.9 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -1.5 (+20.5) | 148.6 (+25.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -3.5 (+18.5) | 150.0 (+24.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -4.1 (+17.9) | 151.6 (+22.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -3.4 (+18.6) | 151.5 (+22.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNC 87 – 84 WAKE |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UNC 68 – 59 WAKE |
| Jan 22, 2025 | WAKE 67 – 66 UNC |
| Jan 23, 2024 | UNC 85 – 64 WAKE |
| Feb 8, 2023 | WAKE 92 – 85 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 18-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#38) | 10.1 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#47) | 1.75 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#46) | 2.21 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#63) | 0.598 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 79.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 13.7% |
Game Analysis
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