Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UL -3.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -3.0 (+7.0) | 141.7 (-13.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -1.3 (+8.7) | 140.7 (-12.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -1.3 (+8.7) | 141.3 (-13.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -1.7 (+8.3) | 142.4 (-14.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TROY 78 – 59 UL |
| Jan 10, 2026 | TROY 90 – 70 UL |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UL 72 – 69 TROY |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TROY 74 – 56 UL |
| Feb 29, 2024 | TROY 87 – 73 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 10-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#167) | -0.0 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#175) | 0.78 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#182) | 1.14 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#162) | 0.517 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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