Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +16 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -12.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -9.9 (+6.1) | 143.5 (-3.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -9.3 (+6.7) | 146.3 (-6.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -9.7 (+6.3) | 146.2 (-6.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -10.2 (+5.8) | 144.1 (-4.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2023 | MONM 77 – 71 MAN |
| Dec 4, 2022 | MONM 76 – 69 MAN |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MONM 75 – 65 MAN |
| Feb 7, 2021 | MONM 71 – 69 MAN |
| Feb 6, 2021 | MONM 70 – 65 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#110) | -5.0 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#86) | 0.09 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#94) | -0.40 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#65) | 0.491 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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