Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +3 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -5.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -3.9 (-6.9) | 134.2 (+0.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -5.2 (-8.2) | 135.3 (-0.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -5.0 (-8.0) | 135.5 (-0.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -5.0 (-8.0) | 136.5 (-1.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-9 |
| Away | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#145) | -0.9 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#212) | -0.69 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#192) | -0.83 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#193) | 0.472 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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