Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -14.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -13.3 (+6.7) | 151.5 (-11.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -12.6 (+7.4) | 157.3 (-17.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -12.1 (+7.9) | 156.4 (-16.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -14.7 (+5.3) | 154.4 (-14.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | PUR 81 – 68 NU |
| Mar 5, 2026 | PUR 70 – 66 NU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PUR 79 – 61 NU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | PUR 105 – 96 NU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NU 92 – 88 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#8) | 7.8 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#15) | 0.97 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#11) | 1.14 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#21) | 0.508 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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