Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF -456 UCSD +344 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -9.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -7.2 (-4.2) | 138.0 (+25.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -7.7 (-4.7) | 139.7 (+23.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -7.6 (-4.6) | 138.4 (+24.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -8.2 (-5.2) | 137.0 (+26.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CSUF 75 – 71 UCSD |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 71 UCSD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UCSD 100 – 55 CSUF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCSD 90 – 51 CSUF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 69 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 0-0 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#136) | -4.7 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#141) | -0.79 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#140) | -0.75 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#147) | 0.459 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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