Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Convocation Center (VA) · January 22, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread HPU -2.5 Home covered
O/U 129.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total HAMP win
Actual HAMP +4 132 Won
Massey HPU -0.3 (+4.3) — —
Massey Totals — 125.1 (+6.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 51% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 16% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ HPU -0.4 (+4.4) 132.9 (-0.9) 48% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML HPU -0.1 (+4.1) 130.2 (+1.8) 49% ✗
Baseline ML HAMP -0.1 (+3.9) 131.2 (+0.8) 54% ✓
Baseline Plus ML HPU -0.7 (+4.7) 133.0 (-1.0) 50% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 26, 2024 HPU 76 – 73 HAMP
Mar 2, 2022 HPU 84 – 77 HAMP
Feb 26, 2022 HPU 88 – 77 HAMP
Feb 8, 2021 HAMP 76 – 71 HPU
Feb 7, 2021 HPU 72 – 58 HAMP

Game Analysis

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