Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Convocation Center (VA) · January 22, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread HPU -2.5 Home covered
O/U 129.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total HAMP win
Actual HAMP +4 132 Won
Massey HPU -0.3 (+4.3)
Massey Totals 125.1 (+6.9)
Bradley-Terry 51%
Weighted B-T 16%
Baseline Plus ML HPU -0.7 (+4.7) 133.0 (-1.0) 50%
Baseline ML HAMP -0.1 (+3.9) 131.2 (+0.8) 54%
Baseline Tuned ML HPU -0.1 (+4.1) 130.2 (+1.8) 49%
Efficiency Plus ML HPU -0.4 (+4.4) 132.9 (-0.9) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 26, 2024 HPU 7673 HAMP
Mar 2, 2022 HPU 8477 HAMP
Feb 26, 2022 HPU 8877 HAMP
Feb 8, 2021 HAMP 7671 HPU
Feb 7, 2021 HPU 7258 HAMP

Game Analysis

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