Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +700 VILL -1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -16.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -13.6 (+2.6) | 141.5 (+17.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -14.4 (+3.4) | 140.8 (+18.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -16.4 (+5.4) | 141.8 (+17.2) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -16.2 (+5.2) | 137.8 (+21.2) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | GTWN 78 – 64 VILL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VILL 80 – 73 GTWN |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GTWN 75 – 73 VILL |
| Jan 20, 2025 | GTWN 64 – 63 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 0-19 | 16-4 |
| Home | 6-11 | 12-1 |
| Away | 0-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L21 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 62.7 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#203) | 18.6 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#210) | 3.00 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#206) | 4.02 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#226) | 0.636 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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