Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +19 | 103 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -7.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -7.7 (+11.3) | 137.2 (-34.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -6.3 (+12.7) | 138.6 (-35.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -6.4 (+12.6) | 139.2 (-36.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -5.5 (+13.5) | 138.1 (-35.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VAN 91 – 74 FLA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | FLA 98 – 94 VAN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FLA 86 – 75 VAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VAN 79 – 78 FLA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FLA 77 – 64 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#31) | 7.3 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#66) | 1.13 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#61) | 1.22 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#73) | 0.545 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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