Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -8.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -7.9 (-9.9) | 155.0 (-7.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -7.0 (-9.0) | 150.6 (-2.6) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -6.8 (-8.8) | 151.9 (-3.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -6.9 (-8.9) | 153.1 (-5.1) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ETSU 83 – 76 CIT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ETSU 84 – 55 CIT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | ETSU 74 – 49 CIT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ETSU 81 – 66 CIT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 52 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#167) | -5.2 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#110) | -1.32 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#125) | -1.66 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#87) | 0.436 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 12.6% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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