Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +3 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -6.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -5.8 (-2.8) | 133.3 (-14.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -4.2 (-1.2) | 136.4 (-17.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -4.5 (-1.5) | 137.2 (-18.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -4.0 (-1.0) | 136.6 (-17.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#191) | -3.7 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#174) | 0.17 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#169) | -0.21 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#176) | 0.500 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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