Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
| Money | L-MD -550 AMER +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -13.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -8.8 (-3.8) | 133.4 (+17.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -9.6 (-4.6) | 134.2 (+16.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -9.7 (-4.7) | 134.3 (+16.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -9.3 (-4.3) | 134.2 (+16.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | L-MD 77 – 68 AMER |
| Dec 31, 2025 | AMER 84 – 69 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AMER 72 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 14, 2025 | AMER 73 – 54 L-MD |
| Feb 8, 2024 | L-MD 44 – 43 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#251) | -13.9 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#218) | -1.77 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#241) | -2.15 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#246) | 0.389 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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