Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | MD +175 ILL -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -8.9 (+24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -7.1 (+23.1) | 144.8 (+1.2) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -7.5 (+23.5) | 146.5 (-0.5) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -7.6 (+23.6) | 146.9 (-0.9) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -6.2 (+22.2) | 145.0 (+1.0) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ILL 78 – 72 MD |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILL 89 – 70 MD |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MD 88 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MD 91 – 70 ILL |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ILL 85 – 80 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#101) | 17.2 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#123) | 2.45 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#120) | 3.25 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#119) | 0.610 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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