Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MD +950 ILL -1650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +6 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -19.3 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -17.4 (+11.4) | 144.0 (+6.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -13.4 (+7.4) | 149.5 (+0.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -15.6 (+9.6) | 144.3 (+5.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -17.3 (+11.3) | 144.9 (+5.1) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILL 89 – 70 MD |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MD 88 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MD 91 – 70 ILL |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ILL 85 – 80 MD |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MD 76 – 67 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#144) | 23.8 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#110) | 3.42 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#107) | 4.60 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#170) | 0.627 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 11.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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