Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | MD -125 ILL +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +23 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MD -0.9 (+22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.5 (+21.5) | 154.4 (-1.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -0.1 (+22.9) | 156.5 (-3.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -2.4 (+20.6) | 153.2 (-0.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -0.8 (+22.2) | 152.2 (+0.8) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ILL 78 – 72 MD |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILL 89 – 70 MD |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MD 91 – 70 ILL |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ILL 85 – 80 MD |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MD 76 – 67 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 17-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 19.9 (#9) | 19.0 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#21) | 2.71 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#13) | 3.60 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#23) | 0.590 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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