Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -240 MD +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +21 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -8.3 (-29.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -7.1 (-28.1) | 155.8 (+5.2) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -8.6 (-29.6) | 155.3 (+5.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -7.9 (-28.9) | 155.6 (+5.4) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -7.9 (-28.9) | 154.6 (+6.4) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ILL 78 – 72 MD |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILL 89 – 70 MD |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MD 88 – 65 ILL |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ILL 85 – 80 MD |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MD 76 – 67 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 17-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 22.9 (#4) | 18.0 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#21) | 1.98 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.14 (#15) | 2.94 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#26) | 0.565 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 45.2 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.