Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -450 MD +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -15.8 (-24.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -12.5 (-21.5) | 141.5 (+1.5) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -11.4 (-20.4) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -12.8 (-21.8) | 140.0 (+3.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -12.9 (-21.9) | 140.4 (+2.6) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ILL 78 – 72 MD |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILL 89 – 70 MD |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MD 88 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MD 91 – 70 ILL |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ILL 85 – 80 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#10) | 5.6 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#18) | 0.40 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#13) | 0.71 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#19) | 0.503 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.