Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -2100 MD +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +19 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -23.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -21.3 (-2.3) | 145.7 (+13.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -17.6 (+1.4) | 148.2 (+10.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -18.7 (+0.3) | 146.2 (+12.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -20.8 (-1.8) | 144.6 (+14.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ILL 78 – 72 MD |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MD 88 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MD 91 – 70 ILL |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ILL 85 – 80 MD |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MD 76 – 67 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 4-16 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 22.2 (#6) | 1.7 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#13) | 0.30 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.08 (#10) | 0.41 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#18) | 0.504 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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