Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MD +115 ILL -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +5 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -4.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.0 (-3.0) | 140.4 (+24.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -2.3 (-2.7) | 139.0 (+26.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -1.5 (-3.5) | 138.1 (+26.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -1.2 (-3.8) | 140.3 (+24.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ILL 78 – 72 MD |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILL 89 – 70 MD |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MD 88 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MD 91 – 70 ILL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MD 76 – 67 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#59) | 17.0 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#96) | 2.39 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#72) | 3.07 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#127) | 0.616 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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